Measuring forecast skill: is it real skill or is it the varying climatology?
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Measuring forecast skill: is it real skill or is it the varying climatology?
It is common practice to summarize the skill of weather forecasts from an accumulation of samples spanning many locations and dates. In calculating many of these scores, there is an implicit assumption that the climatological frequency of event occurrence is approximately invariant over all samples. If the event frequency actually varies among the samples, the metrics may report a skill that is...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
سال: 2006
ISSN: 0035-9009,1477-870X
DOI: 10.1256/qj.06.25